Thursday, October 20, 2016
ACTUARIAL REVIEW: Analysis of Recent Polls Shows Trump Win and Possible Landslide
Gateway Pundit The mainstream media always use polls to push their agenda. Polls can be skewed by selecting an unreasonable sample size, by asking lead up questions or by selecting more of a sample population of one side of an issue to achieve a desired result. Main stream media skews polls to discourage potential voters from voting and has done it for years.
A good example of the media trying to shape a vote was in 1980. In a Gallup poll released on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan 47 – 39. Two weeks later Reagan won in such a landslide that Carter conceded before California was closed.
Another example of mainstream liberal media bias was in 1988. A Gallup Poll from July 26 showed Michael S. Dukakis leading George H. W. Bush by 17 points. Of course Bush went on to thump Dukakis in the general election.
This past week a number of polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by various margins. One poll last week reported by NBC/WSJ showed Hillary ahead by 11. However, Truthfeed pointed out that NBC/WSJ didn’t mention that the poll was created by a Hillary Super PAC.
It’s also well known that the Monmouth University poll is run by a Hillary Huckster who recently was caught manipulating a poll and then lied about it.
Realclearpolitics.com takes an average of these distorted polls to come up with their analysis of the current race. Their efforts are a great example of the phrase – ‘garbage in – garbage out’.
With all the liberal distortions and dishonesty we decided to have a small team of actuarial and statistics professionals take a look at a couple of the recent polls to get their take on the reliability of these polls. They selected the recent FOX poll from October 14 showing Hillary up by 7 and the WSJ/NBC poll from October 16 showing Hillary with an 11 point lead.
The first observation is that both polls are heavily skewed towards Democrats. At a high level, the FOX poll consists of 43 Dems to 36 Reps to 21 Other while the NBC poll shows 44 Dems to 37 Reps to 19 Other. By selecting more Dems the polls are designed to provide a Dem result.
Our experts next analyzed the data and calculated results using the same data from the two surveys on a split of 40 Dems, 40 Reps and 20 Other. The results show that using either sets of data Trump comes out ahead with a larger margin of victory using the FOX data.
Clearly the polls using data that is heavily weighted towards Democrat voters is incorrectly skewed.
This year Republicans crushed their previous record in the primaries for number of votes by 150%. Their old record was 20 million and this year 31 million voted in the primaries.
The Democrats on the other hand had 7 million votes less than their record year in 2008 with 30 million this year compared to 37 million in 2008.
Also, the primaries were heavily contested on both sides resulting in factions from each party vowing not to vote for the party candidate. The impact of these two groups is difficult to judge. The percentage of these voters that change parties is probably limited. If anything, the Sanders people will probably be more likely to vote for Trump since he is an outsider and many of them will never vote for Crooked Hillary.
In the presidential race of Truman vs Dewey, it was so certain that Dewey would win that newspapers printed their morning headline in advance. As we all know, Truman won.
Finally, it is difficult to determine what the independent voters will do but many independent voters partook in the primaries to vote for Trump. Therefore it is more likely that Independent voters vote for Trump as well.
If more Democratic voters vote for Trump than Republicans vote for Hillary and more Independents vote for Trump than Hillary, both scenarios which are highly likely, then the results of the general election will likely be a Trump landslide.
Let’s face it NOBODY likes Hillary and NOBODY trusts Hillary.
Nobody trusted Hillary before WikiLeaks. Trump is filling arenas around the country but Hillary can barely fill half a high school gymnasium. Her VP candidate Tim Kaine can’t even get 50 people at an event.
Maybe the current polls are not just inaccurate – maybe they are dead wrong.
But there’s still a chance the election will be stolen by dirty tricks:
Algeria asked for and was taken off the State Department terrorist list by Hillary Clinton after it made a large donation to Clinton Foundation.
#Illegals seeking asylum up 900%, get cash, welfare, school loans
By PAUL BEDARD (@SECRETSBEDARD) • 10/19/16 8:44 AM
The number of illegals seeking asylum to gain easy access to the United States has jumped 900 percent in less than 10 years, greatly expanding the Immigration population receiving Social Security benefits, school loans, green cards, welfare and other taxpayer funded services, according to figures from the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services.
While about 8,000 mostly Latin Americans in 2009 sought asylum, the number is expected to reach 80,000 or more this year, according to a projection from the Center for Immigration Studies.
The report said 80 percent come from just three countries that have already flooded the border with youths and young families, El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Most claim a fear of torture, abuse, or retaliation, fulfilling the U.S. requirement that they must voice some credible fear of returning home.
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The surge was sparked by a freeing up by President Obama of the restrictions to those requesting asylum. Now they are let into the United States while they pursue their asylum request.
The author of the report, Jessica M. Vaughan, the Center's director of policy studies, said many of those arriving at the border to claim asylum are trafficked through Mexico by gangs charging fees to get their clients into the U.S.
What's more, typically many are granted a temporary OK, then find their way to U.S. cities. A House panel found that some 90 percent are granted asylum, though only 30 percent of the requests were "fraud free," said the CIS analysis.