A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent.
Norpoth announced his prognostication on Monday night during Stony Brook Alumni Association event at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan.
“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth said, according to The Statesman.
“When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke,” the professor told the alumni audience, according to the student newspaper. “Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.”
“This is almost too much to believe,” he told audience members described by the student as nervously laughing. But he is convinced his model won’t be wrong.
“Take it to the bank,” Norpoth confidently suggested.
Norpoth, a 1974 University of Michigan Ph.D. recipient who specializes in electoral behavior alignment, said his crystal ball also shows a 61-percent chance that the Republican nominee — Trump or not — will win the 2016 presidential election.
The political scientist also said there is virtually no way Trump could lose the Electoral College vote if he rakes in 54.7 percent — or more — of the vote.
Norpoth’s general election formula measures candidates’ performances in primaries in caucuses to gauge party unity and voter excitement. It also focuses on certain patterns in electoral cycles. One major assumption is that the party which has just held the presidency for two consecutive terms is less likely to win a third term.
The model has been correct for every election since 1912 except for the 1960 election — which pitted winner John F. Kennedy against loser Richard Nixon.